True Progress

Showing that we can afford space exploration, globally speaking, is not nearly the same as showing why we should pay for it. Despite the fact that we can make room for it in our list of priorities if we choose to, there are still many other priorities that are suffering from a lack of (or those that have died from an absence of) funding. Given budgetary realities, why should we fund space exploration? Read the rest of this entry »

Introduction

Analyzing and controlling risk is one of the most important aspects of the engineering design process. These risks include health and safety, design robustness and reliability, maintainability, marketability, cost, schedule, and performance.

Yet, many of these risks are managed only by the intuition of the project manager or management team. While many are skilled enough to investigate and control most of these risks, the number of projects that fail to meet functional requirements, cost limits, scheduled deadlines, reliability expectations, or other thing, serves as testament to the fact that the complexity of risk management on modern projects is beyond the capabilities of our current system of doing things. Read the rest of this entry »

Often as a reliability engineer, or anyone responsible for researching the reliability of an item, or calculating it, you will find oversimplified published data giving you the impression that reliability is an unchanging physical property like mass or volume, something intrinsic to the materials included in it. This is actually the common sense approach; we know an old thing is less reliable than a new copy of the same thing. But, this common sense gets argued out of us when we are faced with reconciling tables of MTBF (mean time between failures) values, nines (i.e. 0.99999, a measure of reliability), failure rates and other things. Let’s get back to the common sense approach, but with math. Read the rest of this entry »

Modern Compressible Flow with Historical Perspective by John D. Anderson provides an excellent resource for studies in advanced fluid mechanics. In a field where many texts provide useful content in an entirely unmemorable fashion, this text is an exception. Theory, History, Applications, and other interesting information and stories make this book a beneficial addition to any engineer’s library. Read the rest of this entry »

So, you’ve got a design that you want to prove is better than the existing design from your own or another company. What’s the most efficient, fastest way to get to that answer with a very small sample size? Whle there may be several options you have, including accelerated testing, they each can have their benefits and drawbacks. Here, I will advocate for zero-failure testing as a realistic and useful option, especially since it is something we often do anyways, but without the mathematical justification. Read the rest of this entry »

For the next several Fridays, I am going to retell some of my experiences from my service in the United States Peace Corps. This is probably not obviously directly related to the aim of True Progress, but I feel that it can be instructive and I believe that the Peace Corps has a specific and valuable role to play in progress around the world. So, understanding at least one image of how it currently works and could work in the future is valuable both in correctly interpreting some of my ideas and formulating your own on how to use or not use this agency. Read the rest of this entry »

This review concerns a niche of mechanical engineering that involves heat transfer at very small scales. Understanding this phenomenon, which is considerably different from typical heat transfer and thermodynamics experienced in the everyday world, is critical to the advancement of nanotechnological machines and microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). Read the rest of this entry »

As a reliability analyst, sometimes none of your data matches the form you are interested in. It all comes in different collections of units, statistical distribution parameters, failure rates, environments, MTBF, MTTF, and on and on. In this article, let’s consider one common conversion for which my research found too little information available on the internet. Read the rest of this entry »

What is the state of the American university system?  Does it produce the types of professionals needed to keep the American economy strong and innovative?

We often hear a lot about how our contemporary economy requires plenty of professionals skilled in science and technology to maintain a healthy rate of innovation. There are are many reasons why science and engineering degrees are often used as barometers or leading indicators of the future state of innovation of the American economy. Read the rest of this entry »

True-Progress.com has released its Free Weibull Reliability Calculator version 1.0.2.

You can download this tool by following this link.

This simple calculator utilizes the Weibull distribution to generate reliability data for your system Read the rest of this entry »

Why pilots (and humans in general) get a bad rap during accident investigations.

In my earlier article on root cause analysis, I mentioned that every cause present in a given situation can be considered equally responsible for the occurrence of the failure in question. Many times, however, investigations end up ascribing the fault of the entire situation to a particular “root cause” that may or may not have happened without the presence of other contributing causes. When we identify the “root cause” as human error and fail to take actions against the system that set up that error, we are perpetuating the problem. Read the rest of this entry »

Evaluating Likelihood and Addressing Uncertainty when Applying Solutions

This is the third article in a five part series.

In the first two articles in this series we looked at identifying a problem and a functional understanding of that problem and then at determining all the causes of that problem. Now, we are going to consider how to take account of uncertain data regarding future events both in the probability that they may occur and in the degree to which they might occur. People are generally bad at statistics, which makes this part of the risk assessment process counterintuitive at times. However, risk is something we do accept on a daily basis, and so I will try and find some analogies. Again, this series is about taking politics and argumentative posturing out of the decision making process regarding climate change. To be sure we adhere to that premise, I will continue to make my examples totally neutral regarding the data and whether we are talking about a warming or cooling climate; I am discussing the decision making process. Read the rest of this entry »

What is Risk Assessment; how do we already use it; and how do we misuse it?

If our goal is to achieve progress, one of the ways we can determine that progress has been made is by a reduction in the quantity and severity of problems we face. Another way, would be to determine the quantity and magnitude of new capabilities we gain. However, new capabilities often bring new problems of their own, if we are not careful. The discipline of risk assessment and mitigation or control, if we take the time to apply it properly, can address the reduction of our current problems and the mitigation of potential future problems caused by our new capabilities. Read the rest of this entry »

In Search of The Best Answer, Not a Better Answer

Whenever there is a major man-made disaster or some kind of accident, responsible officials usually convene a team that conducts an investigation. The results of that investigation will usually identify a “root cause” and several “contributing causes”. If it was a plane crash, the team will probably present the root cause as either pilot error or some kind of maintenance error. But, if you really want to find out what caused the problem and how to fix it, look at the “contributing causes”. Those are the keys to not experiencing that event in the future. Read the rest of this entry »