真の進捗状況

同じ問題に別のオプションを検討する際に我々は一般的に、例えば、ポイントから取得する方法を駆動するか、飛んで、次のコマンドを実行し、Bを指すように、効率性を理解しています。 一つの方法は、他のものより多くのエネルギーを使用しますので、あまり効率的となります。 One冷蔵庫は別として、食品と同じ量を冷やすとより少ないエネルギーを使用するため、より効率的になります。

また、暗黙のうちに（同じタスクを行うために以下の時間は、通常より多くのエネルギーを必要とします）時間とエネルギーの間のトレードオフを理解しています。 しかし、我々は様々な活動を比較するために起動したとき、私たちはしばしばの面で二つの異なるオプション間の全体的な効率を比較するための情報が不足しているDVDプレーヤーを購入したり、新しい自転車を買って対3日間の休暇を取るのに対し夕食にステーキを持って言うエネルギーや素材や本当に私たちは興味がありますすべての可能な標準は、このエントリの残りの部分を読む»

の間で気候変動の緩和オプションは、いわゆるある地理土木技術の地球に衝突する太陽放射量が少ない、偏向ブロック、またはびまんするデバイスのスペースに配置そのうちの1つのプロジェクトは、。

これは地球があまりにも多くの熱を捕捉されるか、またはSunが熱くなっている場合の技術は、、ちょうどそれのビットをブロックするすべての気候制御の最も簡単なの一つです。 どんなに地球上で増加した平均気温の原因は、このソリューションでは、それらを軽減されません。 また、将来的なニーズは、追加の太陽放射は、いくつかの冷却イベントのために温度を維持するために必要とする場合でも、同じ色合いまたは反射は迅速に再設計され、その目的のために使用される可能性がよく、地球規模の気候制御システムの開始。 この残りの部分を読むエントリ»

最近の金融政策、通常、比較的テクニカルた侵略も主流ニュースメディアの様々な形態のメリットに関する議論や討論。 しばしば提唱ひとつのアイデアは "ゴールドスタンダード"に戻り、1930年代には時に住んで何が起こった国に応じて約までいつか紙幣の発明後、代わりに金融政策のフォーム（ただし、続けない）です。時間。

金本位制の賛成か反対か賛成の主張は、しばしば激しいです（特に米国および英国内の特定のサークルで）このようなシステムを実装するためのメカニズムと政策的含意に関する仕様は、しばしば欠けている。 このエントリの残りの部分を読む»

地球上で約7億人の人々は本日、とありますが、 2050年までに予想されるわずか90億 。 地球上で最も貧しい1から2000000000までの人々の多くは今日でも食べるのに十分なを持っていないことを考えると、私たちは本当に十分に40歳未満の時間以上の90億人を養うために期待できますか？ さて、実際には、西部の世界の基準では食品、衣類、避難所を生成するために私たちの農業の容量は約12億人を収容することができます。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

最近、 記事英国の学術トビーによっては、富裕層と同様の慈善活動を達成するための方法として、西洋世界の中産階級の人々によって提唱された大規模な年次支払をordと。 これは氏のオードの英国の社会保障制度を欠いているにも米国内のすべての2専門家の家族がほとんどのため容易に可能でない場合。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

2009年の夏、米国政府と呼ばれる景気刺激プログラムを運営するエコカー買い替え補助金 （C4C）を。 このプログラムの目的は、不況で現在であった米国経済への迅速な景気刺激策を提供するため、国家レベルで全体的な燃料消費を削減し、民間の米国の輸送艦隊の効率的なもののために非効率的な車両の交換を奨励することであった。 さらに、政府は汚染の予想削減、特にスモッグを形成する排出量と温室効果ガスを擁護。 ちょうどプログラムの終了後、2009年9月に入手可能な情報に基づいてこれらの目標を達成するこのプログラムの分析の概要この記事では、次の。 あなたは、完全なレポートをダウンロードすることができ、ここ （PDF）をご覧ください。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

次の世紀に、人類の進歩は、我々は以下の6つのニーズに対応してどのように正常に基づいて続行されます。 彼らは世界の飢餓を終わらせるか、それほど頻繁に漠然と最近マスコミで約スローされる環境破壊を停止し、世界平和の典型的なニーズではありません。 それらは我々が次の100年の間に攻撃しなければならない本当の課題の症状ですが。 彼らはそれらの科目の一部に関連していますが、さまざまな方法で彼らはこの世紀を有効にするか、より広範な目標の私たちの達成を阻害する、より具体的な、より多くの測定可能な要因で指示されています。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

すべての人間の探査の真の原動力の一つが強烈な必要性であった。 世界中の初期の人間への移行では、人々は食糧のための必要性から検討し、他の潜在的に敵対するから安全である必要はバンド·そこ距離で安全です。 ヨーロッパの植民地期間中にヨーロッパの国々や王国は彼らの重商主義経済システムをサポートするためのハードカレンシー（金）と他の物理的な富（スパイス、宝石、など）の強烈な必要性を感じた。 今日の世界では、人間の銀河で私たちのマークを作る高貴な冒険の宇宙の探査が、何のために多くの希望が本当に惑星は我々のニーズになる私たちを引き抜きます。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

経済市場は過剰な規制または下の規制による爆縮しているかどうかについて、最近多くの議論がありました。 ほとんどが自分の特定の政治的バイアスとその引数を拾うが、それは多くの政府が、実際に同時に両方向に作用するので、少なくともない難しい質問です。 技術革新と進歩 ：しかし、私たちは文明の関連が異なる側面を見てみましょう。

アイデアの市場として考えたときに経済学がサイクルブームと胸像、革新と進歩を経験するのと同じように、またそれらのものが発生します。 この以前の規制上の記事はこれのいくつかを説明しますが、我々はいくつかの手順を実行さらにこの考え方を利用しようとしている。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

廃棄物は恐ろしいものです。 最高の状態で、それは誰にとっても何も良いことを実行していない何かを意味している。 最悪の場合、それは我々がすべてのコストで回避することが嫌なものです。 しかし、それにもかかわらず、私たちの生活は、廃棄物で埋められます。 これは、1つは、任意の不要な廃棄物を作成したり、少量でも、その廃棄物を制限することなく、日を通過できるように稀な人や状況である。 我々は、私たちはほとんどそれを認識しないこと、廃棄物のいくつかのフォームに使用されています。

しかし、廃棄物は、物事の我々のシステムの障害とみなされるべきである。 私たちの活動の多くはほとんど、あるいは全く廃棄物と一緒に可能ですが、我々はそれに向かってただ満足しています。 このシリーズのパート1として、我々はどのように、なぜそれが無駄になっていると我々はそれについて何をすべき、 熱を見ていきます。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

はじめに

リスクを分析し、制御するエンジニアリング設計プロセスの最も重要な側面の1つです。 これらのリスクは、健康と安全、設計の堅牢性と信頼性、保守性、市場性、コスト、スケジュール、パフォーマンスが含まれています。

しかし、これらのリスクの多くは、プロジェクトマネージャまたは管理チームの勘によって管理されています。 多くの人が調査し、これらのリスクのほとんどを制御するのに十分熟練していますが、機能要件を満たすために失敗したプロジェクト、コスト制限、スケジュールされた納期、信頼性への期待、または他のものの数は事実として、旧約聖書の機能、リスク管理の複雑さ近代的なプロジェクトに物事の私たちの現在のシステムの能力を超えています。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

次の投稿は、期間1998年から2000年の間に数学と物理学教師としてニューギニアの米国平和部隊、西アフリカでサービスからの私の経験のいくつかについて説明します。 関連するコンテンツが追加されるこの要約記事が更新されます。

パート1：参加するかの決定

パート2：セネガルでの研修

パート3：私のサービスの始まり

パート4：教育体験

パート5：ギニアでの生活

パート6：家庭との接続

パート7：冒険と悲劇

どのような違いであり、それは問題でしょうか？

新技術を実装したり、我々は現在、世界で直面しているかだけでも、私たちの日常の活動についてmundate意思決定問題を解決しようとしているかどうか、我々は絶えず我々が直面するリスクについて判断を下す。 私たちのlimintedリソース、時間、スキルで、私たちはリスクと他人を受け入れるように私たちのエクスポージャーの一部を制限することを選択します。 しかし、それらの意思決定を行うとき、我々はリスクについての心理的なバイアスに自分自身を開いて、しばしば我々がそうでなければされているものよりも貧しい立場で私たちを置く決定を下す。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

ますます、緑の広告は、メーカーや小売業の間で、はるかに重要になっています。 それは多くの消費者は別の同じように機能的な製品よりも環境へのストレスが少なくて製品を選択することが与えられた多くのオプションを好むだろうと思われる。 度がどのこれは今日は大きく異なり、それぞれの人に影響をされているが、それはこれらの企業が市場で感じる本物の圧力に応答していることは明らかである。 現在の結果は、製品のグリーンネスに関する広告や公共の特許請求の範囲のほぼ必須のシリーズであった。 しかし、これらの主張のいくつかは矛盾するかもしれないとして、どのようにすれば最良の選択を行う方法を知ることができますか？ 我々は、この記事で1つのケースを検討してみましょう。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

平和部隊のサービスの利点の一つは、あなたがおそらくすべての周りの人々の冒険を活用する機会といくつかの時間でそうでなければ訪問していないことを世界の地域でサービス中の自分自身を見つけることである。 残りの部分を読むこのエントリの»

平和部隊、の3つの主要なミッションの二人はそうでない場合は関連することができるアメリカの本当の顔と接触していない可能性があり人々を示すの1つを、他の一部をもたらしている。文化交流に関連するそうでなければその場所に移動していない可能性がありますアメリカ人に外国文化のバック。 これらのミッションステートメントは、1つのこと - これらを達成するための単純なタスクではありませんを指して存在しているという事実だけ。 の部分で、彼らは努力なしで起こる。 しかし、また、それらの困難は、彼らが積極的に友人や家族と故郷との関係に影響を及ぼす点にも、これらの活動を推進しているかどうかにかかわらずボランティアに影響を与えます。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

それは世界のしくみを理解しようとする人の間で共通の会話の一部です：それはどのようにサハラ以南のアフリカははるかに現代世界の残りの部分よりも開発されていることになってきたのですか？ 誰も簡単な答えはありませんが、答えがあります。 過去、いくつかの既存の今日のいくつかの原因が、いくつかの絡み合ったスレッドを含むもの。 この記事では私たちが今日見て、うまくいけば、将来の変化の種をまくような状況の原因を特定し、この質問への答えに到達するキーの多くを保持する8冊を指します。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

背景のために、私はギニアの米国平和部隊、西アフリカからの私の経験のいくつかを記述しています。 このシリーズの詳細についてはで利用可能で導入 。

多くは、しばしば、それが平和部隊のボランティアとして生きることを本当に似ているのだろうか。 実際は、それがどの国とどのような位置あなたはに掲載されに応じて非常に異なる経験をすることができます。 また、部分的に起因する世界的な開発に、現在に至る1960年代初頭頃から大幅に変更し、平和部隊の方法と目的の変化に一因しています。 だから、すべての経験は、私が記述したものと異なるでしょうが、この記事では、それは私が1998年から2000年にギニアの国で一つの場所に提供するためのようであったものに1つの視点を提供します。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

This article recently brought up an excellent point on how some rates can be deceiving, and even reduce the likelihood that we will make the right decision. The example involved comparing impressions of fuel efficiency in miles per gallon versus gallons per mile, or gallons per ten thousand miles. While identifying the better of two options in either case is easy regardless of the rate, other types of evaluations can be much more complex if we end up using the wrong units. Read the rest of this entry »

最近のニュースのオープニング強調しているカリフォルニア州で最初の商業用水素燃料ステーションを 。 水素燃料電池車（最も一般的なユーザ）または水素combusionエンジンのいくつかの種類のリースの人々のために、彼らは今、彼らは自分の車に燃料を補給することができ、カリフォルニア州の1の公共の場所を持っています。 いくつかの他は、すでにニューイングランドとワシントンに存在しますが、DCは、この燃料消費量の技術の新しい時代の開始と化石燃料の終わりの始まりか？ そして、この水素は、とにかくどこから来るのでしょうか？ この記事ではそれらの質問のいくつかを探検してみましょう。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

For background, I am describing some of my experiences from the US Peace Corps in Guinea, West Africa. More information on this series is available in the introduction .

Although, I was one of only two Americans in a small rural school with one class per grade teaching in a foreign language, my experiences in the beginning were not at all unlike any first time teacher I have spoken with since. A little performance anxiety was common in the first few months, but that gradually gave way to the normal challenges that teaching high school students brings, and a few that were not so normal (at least not to Americans). Read the rest of this entry »

Good Science? Bad Science? What do these mean? How do we know the difference? We throw these terms around especially in political and policy arguments as if we all understand what they mean. Exceptions. Uncertainty. Facts. Theory. Bias. These ideas seem to determine whether or not we think any particular scientific idea is good or bad. Do we have the right idea, or is Science really about something else. Read the rest of this entry »

After completion of our training in Senegal, we traveled to Guinea to see our host country for the first time. As the rains had been late in Senegal, our time there was mostly marked by sand and heat and more of the same. The brilliant green lushness of coastal Guinea having already seen months of rain, was a beautiful sight in spite of the humidity. A couple quick weeks of training, and we would finally be on our ways as volunteers at our posts. A healthy dose of nervous excitement permeated this period. Read the rest of this entry »

信頼性エンジニア、またはアイテムの信頼性を研究し、またはそれを計算するための責任が誰に頻繁に、あなたは、あなたに含まれている材料に本質的な何かを信頼性は質量または体積のような不変の物理的性質であるという印象を与えて単純化しすぎて公開されたデータを見つけるそれ。 これは実際には常識的なアプローチであり、我々は、古いものは同じものの新しいコピーをより信頼性が低いことがわかります。 我々はMTBF（平均故障間隔）の値を、ナイン（すなわち0.99999、信頼性の測定）、故障率と他のものの和解のテーブルに直面している場合でも、この常識は、私たちの外に主張されます。 常識的なアプローチに戻ったが、数学でみましょう。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

石油の掘削は、アクティビティオフショアを生産する唯一のポテンシャルエネルギーではありません

"緑"または再生可能エネルギー技術は、しばしば壮大な戦いのいくつかの種類の伝統的な化石燃料技術に対してライバルとして見られているが、それらは実際に、時にはお互いを強化し、サポートすることができます。 風力発電会社からの最近のニュースは、深海の石油·ガスの探鉱および生産操作のために開発した技術を用いることにより、風を防いで障害物からの土地との距離の視力の深い水にオフショアそのタービンを移動することができることを示唆している。 残りの部分を読むこのエントリの»

今後数週間にわたって金曜日に、私は米国の平和部隊の私のサービスからの経験を記述しています。

アフリカ航空でニューヨークのJFK空港から一晩のフライトでは、次の日にセネガルのダカールで私たちを入れた。 雨はまだ来ていなかった6月に、セネガルは、非常に乾燥して非常に熱く、非常に砂の場所だった。 平和部隊のスタッフが飛行機からちょうど私達に会って、私たちは入国審査を滑空。 手荷物受取所では、我々の生活を私たちに追いつくために2つの許可されて袋に詰め、長時間のフライトと睡眠不足から夢中のビットはまだ汗を待っていた。 我々は、ティースのトレーニングセンターに連れて行ってくれました私達を待っているバス、ダカールから車で約1時間の街に乗り込んだ。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

ジョンD.アンダーソン歴史的視点で現代的な圧縮性流れでは、高度な流体力学の研究のための優れたリソースを提供します。 多くのテキストが完全に記憶しにくい方法で有用なコンテンツを提供するフィールドに、このテキストは例外です。 理論、歴史、アプリケーション、および他の興味深い情報と物語この本すべてのエンジニアのライブラリに有益に加えてください。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

だから、あなたが証明したいデザインが自分または他の会社から、既存の設計よりも優れているんだ。 非常に小さなサンプルサイズでその答えを得るために最も効率的な、最速の方法は何ですか？ Whle加速試験を含め、持っているいくつかのオプションがあるかもしれません、彼らはそれぞれ彼らの利点と欠点を持つことができます。 ここで、私はそれが私たちはしばしばとにかくを行うものです、特に以来、現実的かつ有用なオプションとして、ゼロ·故障テストのために提唱したが、数学的正当性なしになります。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

我々は開発がうまく人口の福祉の一般的な増加であると考えている場合は、我々は、メジャーの1型（実質所得）の増加がメジャー別のタイプの（病気の負の作用によって打ち消された回があることを認識する必要がありますレート）。 これらのケースで、政府はしばしば問題を規制するために繰り返します。 しかし、政府規制は、それが浅はかで必要と他の回でもあります。 どのように我々は違いを見分けることができますか？ このエントリの残りの部分を読む»

最近では、 CNN.comでこの資料では、空間に太陽光発電を収集し、地球にそれを晴れやかなアイデアを再訪。 次の20から50年間で予想されるエネルギー、宇宙へのアクセスの減少コストのような大規模な世界の需要では、これは現実のものとなるために、この空想科学小説の技術のための時間だろうか？ 当社のコストの増加に伴い、地理的にソースリソースが不安定で、不愉快な、あるいは不十分と見られて、このアイデアは、最終的に年齢の来たことがあります。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

For the next several Fridays, I am going to retell some of my experiences from my service in the United States Peace Corps. This is probably not obviously directly related to the aim of True Progress, but I feel that it can be instructive and I believe that the Peace Corps has a specific and valuable role to play in progress around the world. So, understanding at least one image of how it currently works and could work in the future is valuable both in correctly interpreting some of my ideas and formulating your own on how to use or not use this agency. Read the rest of this entry »

So, what happens when the very actions that we each individually take to improve our lives in the end cause detrimental consequences to all of us? The sage might say that the road to hell is paved with good intentions, and she might be right. But, does it have to be that way? Are we doomed to one step forward and one step back? Can we anticipate the things that might go wrong? And, how important is the collective good when compared to personal freedom? Read the rest of this entry »

This review concerns a niche of mechanical engineering that involves heat transfer at very small scales. Understanding this phenomenon, which is considerably different from typical heat transfer and thermodynamics experienced in the everyday world, is critical to the advancement of nanotechnological machines and microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). Read the rest of this entry »

Energy efficiency is a wonderful investment both for businesses and consumers often paying far better returns than the stock and bond markets. If so, then why don't we take advantage of it? Increases in efficiency can reduce energy consumption for the same or increasing amount of output. All the while, pollution is reduced and money is saved increasing the health and well being of our communities. Is all of this good news falling on deaf ears? Read the rest of this entry »

Why considering a monetary value of life is not only acceptable, but morally necessary

Typically, the first time we consider someone placing a monetary value on protecting a life, the risk of death, or other similar circumstances, we cringe. The mere mention of life in the context of money seems cruel and far too calculating. Rightly, we have learned that an absolute monetary value cannot be placed on the worth of a person whether young or old, experienced or inexperienced, whatever race they are or religion they hold. This article is not going to challenge any of those ethics. Life is a priceless phenomenon and every person's experience is something to be held at the pinnacle of our value system. Read the rest of this entry »

エネルギーコストがインフレよりも早く、米国では収入よりもはるかに速い増加に伴って、多くの人が節約する欲求を持っています。 しかし、情報がなくても、私たちの保全は、それが価値がある、それはされている可能性としてはほとんどとして有効であるよりも高価かもしれません。 殺す-ワットの電力使用量のモニターは、保全に関するスマートになるための便利な方法を提供しています。 あなたの家の効率を上げます。 このエントリ»の残りの部分を読む

In this earlier article on the new CAFE standards, I found that depending on the assumptions made for the number of future miles driven, restricting the speed limit to 55 miles per hour would be a more cost effective and more energy efficient solution than changing the CAFE standard. That analysis only considered the total amount of fuel consumed between the two options. Now, let's take that analysis a few steps further. Read the rest of this entry »

Getting answers before you are finished. Why are people always so impatient? Why can't they just wait until testing is complete before they ask for answers? I suppose it is just human nature, as I have heard that question any time I have been involved in reliability testing programs. And, although we would know much more if we waited for more data to roll in, there are times that we can evaluate where our project stands on the basis of partial test results. Read the rest of this entry »

As landfills which hold municipal solid waste are closed the emissions from decay of the material in the landfill becomes a pollutant. That pollutant can either contribute to smog and the increase in greenhouse gases, or it can be used as an energy source. A free, environmentally friendly fuel, potentially harmful if released, is not being used everywhere? What are we thinking? Read the rest of this entry »

Increasing the quality and quantity of education in poor countries is critical and absolutely necessary to their development, but let's not lose sight of how disruptive a free and generous education can be. Education changes cultures, economies, and governments, and for nations entering that transition period the way must be prepared. Read the rest of this entry »

Sustainable technology is an idea that may produce a new level of real progress around the world. But often today, the term is more of a marketing badge that may or may not prove to be true when put to the test. I have written before about sustainable technology and some of the problems with realizing that idea. In this article, let's consider a set of objectives that we can use to actually measure whether something is sustainable. Read the rest of this entry »

As a reliability analyst, sometimes none of your data matches the form you are interested in. It all comes in different collections of units, statistical distribution parameters, failure rates, environments, MTBF, MTTF, and on and on. In this article, let's consider one common conversion for which my research found too little information available on the internet. Read the rest of this entry »

What is the state of the American university system? Does it produce the types of professionals needed to keep the American economy strong and innovative?

We often hear a lot about how our contemporary economy requires plenty of professionals skilled in science and technology to maintain a healthy rate of innovation. There are are many reasons why science and engineering degrees are often used as barometers or leading indicators of the future state of innovation of the American economy. Read the rest of this entry »

True-Progress.com has released its Free Weibull Reliability Calculator version 1.0.2.

You can download this tool by following this link .

This simple calculator utilizes the Weibull distribution to generate reliability data for your system Read the rest of this entry »

Why pilots (and humans in general) get a bad rap during accident investigations.

In my earlier article on root cause analysis , I mentioned that every cause present in a given situation can be considered equally responsible for the occurrence of the failure in question. Many times, however, investigations end up ascribing the fault of the entire situation to a particular “root cause” that may or may not have happened without the presence of other contributing causes. When we identify the “root cause” as human error and fail to take actions against the system that set up that error, we are perpetuating the problem. Read the rest of this entry »

Progress via a True Global Internet

In our contemporary world, one of the most important factors constraining the growth of societies is lack of information. In some places, infrastructure is not sufficiently developed in communications and electricity and the availability of electronics in the market to even allow people to connect to the information available via the internet. In other places, totalitarian governments partially or entirely limit the access their people have to the information available on the internet. Read the rest of this entry »

How Conservation and Efficiency Can Sometimes Increase Consumption

Conservation and efficiency are always good, right? Unfortunately, not always.

Many of us, myself included, consider ourselves conservationists. We don't buy or take things that we don't need (for example, lots of extra paper napkins at the restaurant). We consider the energy efficiency of our vehicles, appliances, and other things we use in our homes. And, in principle, we are in favor of measures that encourage everyone to conserve more like recycling. But, things don't always turn out as we expect, and we must be diligent that our conservation measures don't end up resulting in more consumption than would otherwise have occured.

There are several causes and conditions for this type of occurence, and most involve market economics. To illustrate my point with an example, let's consider a few potential conservation regulations that could be enacted by a municipal government. Read the rest of this entry »

When Subsidies are Hard to See

When we think of our governments subsidizing a particular industry we usually envision a nice big check sent to them every year to the tune of millions of dollars from tax revenues. Sometimes, instead, it is that industry that is free from a particular tax that most others have to pay. But, what if instead there are payments in kind that elevate one industry or one form of technology over another. Would we recognize those things as government subsidies? Read the rest of this entry »

Stay Focused on the Big picture

This is the fifth article in a five part series.

In this series, we have been outlining a evidence-based, constructive method to address the issue of climate change. While using this method doesn't eliminate any disputes, it does change them from one of attacking philosophies, which are not easily changed, to disputes about data analysis. And disputes about data analysis although sometimes nearly as heated can eventually be objectively resolved. The earlier articles focued on defining the real problem , determining causes , developing solutions and evaluating policy . While those articles briefly covered all of the major aspects of the method I am advocating, there are other important ideas that must be agreed upon to some degree by those participating in the process. Read the rest of this entry »

This review refers to version 6.3 of IRCMS by NAVAIR (Naval Air Systems Command).

IRCMS 6.3 provides users with an aid to perform Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) analysis. RCM is a process by which the life cycle costs of performing maintenance on a system are compared to the consequences of not performing maintenance as well as other options. This is a free tool, available here . As it is free to download and test this tool, I will not go into every feature available, just what I have noticed as its strengths and weaknesses. Read the rest of this entry »

Evaluating Solution Effectiveness and Translating Analysis into Policy

This is the fourth article in a five part series.

To date in this series, we've looked at objective measures of how to frame a problem , how to determine the causes of that problem , and consider implementing a robust solution to the problem. In the last article , we examined what to do about risk in an environment of uncertainty both from the standpoint of the problem and in the effectiveness of our solutions. In this article, I am going to discuss how we could form policy in a non-political fashion when given that kind of situation. Read the rest of this entry »

In honor of Earth Day on 4/22 (a little late, I know), let's consider the relationship between “green” production and conservation.

Our question is does conservation or “green” production result a greater positive impact regarding our use of resources. I am going to take the case of paper, as it is relatively simple product to manufacture, is a major waste product, and can be easily recycled.

As of 2000, paper consumption in the United States was approximately 324 kg per person. Americans recycle approxmately 38% of that total, and of the remainder that is thrown away, it makes up nearly 40% of the municipal waste stream eventually being incenerated or deposited in a landfill. Recycling has been growing slowly, however, only growing from 20% in 1921 to 38% today . Consumption has grown faster increasing more than 1% compounded annually or over 23% since 1990. Read the rest of this entry »

Evaluating Likelihood and Addressing Uncertainty when Applying Solutions

This is the third article in a five part series.

In the first two articles in this series we looked at identifying a problem and a functional understanding of that problem and then at determining all the causes of that problem . Now, we are going to consider how to take account of uncertain data regarding future events both in the probability that they may occur and in the degree to which they might occur. People are generally bad at statistics , which makes this part of the risk assessment process counterintuitive at times. However, risk is something we do accept on a daily basis, and so I will try and find some analogies. Again, this series is about taking politics and argumentative posturing out of the decision making process regarding climate change. To be sure we adhere to that premise, I will continue to make my examples totally neutral regarding the data and whether we are talking about a warming or cooling climate; I am discussing the decision making process. Read the rest of this entry »

Guns, Germs, and Steel by Jared Diamond is an excellent explanation of why the world is the way it is. Combined with William Easterly's book reviewed earlier on this site, a reader can finally get his or her hands around the broad historical causes that have produced the world that we live in.

This is a broad brush of history and geography to explain the current state of societies in the world today. This is a partial answer to the question of why do some societies have wealth and power and why are others poor and constantly on the verge of a natural or man-made disaster. Read the rest of this entry »

A Root Cause Analysis on the “Failure Mode” of Changing (Increasing or Decreasing) Temperatures.

This is the second article of a five part series.

In the last article I outlined our functional model of the Earth. According to that model to explain why the current temperature of earth is the way it is, we have a primary energy input from the sun, and secondary energy inputs from other astronomical sources and internal energy from the Earth itself. The properties of the Earth that effect the temperature are the reflectivity, the percentage of energy reaching Earth reflected back out into space, and the emissivity, the ease at which the energy Earth contains can be released into space (cooling at night for example). The goal in this series is to address climate change in a real, technocratic, nonpolitical manner to elimate the arguing and posturing, and outline a process whereby people could identify what problem exists and the best most robust solution. Read the rest of this entry »

Some would say progress is continually achieving a higher and higher level of capability as individuals and collectively as a society. For example, we can buy improved cell phones, computers, and automobiles each year. Others would say that progress involves reaching a state of balance such that we are not destroying any nonrenewable resources and not using any more renewable resources than we produce. But, perhaps either of those cannot be achieved consistently without the other.

Recently, an initiative launched in Japan seeks to
increase the average lifespan of homes to 200 years. That would conserve resources as fewer home building materials would be needed over the long term. Homes would serve several generations before replacement and include flexibility in arrangement to meet the needs of a variety of families.

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A Risk Assessment Approach to Climate Change Policy

This is the first article of a five part series.

It is difficult to find a more hotly debated public policy issue today than the one about potential regulatory actions related to global climate change. Much of this debate is emotional focused on various groups' attitudes toward government action and personal responsibility, pessimism or optimism related to human interactions with the environment, and other philosophical differences. That being what it is, I think a different approach could show us the way out of that kind of divisive argument and produce positive action in an amount properly proportional to the nature of the threat. So, in a series of 5 articles, I am going to address this issue, not as a politician or a policy advocate, but as an engineer considering options and trying to reduce the risk associated with a particular problem. To maintain the non-partisan nature of this series, I am going to assume that increases or decreases in global temperatures are equally likely, and since, in theory, they have related solutions, it does not diminish the outcome of the analysis. Read the rest of this entry »

And, I mean way off…

Picture yourself in a small tropical village a few hundred miles south of the Sahara Desert. About 800 people live there. You are probably related in one way or another to most of them, but you don't really know how exactly, beyond your own close-knit extended family. There is no electricity, no running water, no telephone.

During 6 months of the year when thundershowers pass over most afternoons, you work hard in your small fields taking care of cassava, corn, peppers, eggplant, okra, tomatoes, and rice, and look after your 9 goats. During another 2 months in the dry dusty season you have work to do tending your small orchard of mango, papaya, cashew, and orange trees. You are good at what you do, providing almost all the basic food you need, and have a surplus of almost 20% in products you can sell for cash. This covers the costs in supplies and uniforms to send you son and daughter to primary school. Read the rest of this entry »

What is Risk Assessment; how do we already use it; and how do we misuse it?

If our goal is to achieve progress, one of the ways we can determine that progress has been made is by a reduction in the quantity and severity of problems we face. Another way, would be to determine the quantity and magnitude of new capabilities we gain. However, new capabilities often bring new problems of their own, if we are not careful. The discipline of risk assessment and mitigation or control, if we take the time to apply it properly, can address the reduction of our current problems and the mitigation of potential future problems caused by our new capabilities. Read the rest of this entry »

What would more effectively reduce pollution from small vehicles?

Recently, there was a significant political argument in the United States about the costs and benefits of increasing the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. Increased efficiency, the argument went, would reduce the consumption of fuel, and therefore help restrain fuel prices, also reducing pollution from vehicles causing reductions in greenhouse gasses and even more important things in the immediate term including smog producing substances, which are a major concern in large cities with warm climates like Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas-Ft. Worth, and Atlanta. The counter argument said that the costs would be too high, adding to the prices of vehicles, reducing auto industry revenue, eliminating jobs, and reducing passenger safety. Read the rest of this entry »

The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Out Time by Jeffery Sachs, is an optimistic, forceful argument for the economic potential of developing countries and the necessity of increased in aid from rich countries to realize it.

Jeffrey Sachs is an accomplished macro-economist, currently at Columbia University, who has experience helping poor countries get on track to development. While, often described as left-leaning, he makes strong cases in favor of free-trade, market forces, and the role of the private sector in achieving economic development. He does often tout his own success regarding recommendations for economic reforms that enhanced development in impoverished. However, given the overall pessimistic attitude that many have towards real, subtantial economic development in these difficult places, I am not so sure it was out of place. Read the rest of this entry »

In Search of The Best Answer, Not a Better Answer

Whenever there is a major man-made disaster or some kind of accident , responsible officials usually convene a team that conducts an investigation. The results of that investigation will usually identify a “root cause” and several “contributing causes”. If it was a plane crash, the team will probably present the root cause as either pilot error or some kind of maintenance error. But, if you really want to find out what caused the problem and how to fix it, look at the “contributing causes”. Those are the keys to not experiencing that event in the future. Read the rest of this entry »

So, how long will it be before our trash is more valuable than existing iron mines?

The municipal waste collection system in the United States is very efficient at removing whatever materials we place in our trash bag. So much so, that we normally find it difficult to imagine the scale of the operation, and especially the scale of the mountain of material that is buried in our landfills each year. I wonder how long it will be before the sources of metals in our landfills is more valuable than our sources of metal ore. Read the rest of this entry »

Back in the good old days…

Cultures seem to have their own ideas about what progress truly is and whether it exists at all or is just an illusion. Americans, in general, seem to have faith in progress over time, yet many continue to just as strongly express nostalgia for times past. Others have a more cynical view of progress believing life and history to be more cyclical, while others who have recently experienced opression have no doubt that progress is real and something to strive for. Read the rest of this entry »

Development as Freedom , by Amartya Sen, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, provides a powerful argument that development and progress cannot be measured on the basis of economic output and consumption alone, that personal freedom is a very important and in some areas predominate variable in determining whether progress has been or will be made, and in defining what poverty truly is.

Amartya Sen chooses to describe poverty not as a lack of resources, but as a lack of freedoms. Those freedoms include choosing where to live and work, with whom to associate, freedom to choose our leaders and decide the rules we live by, and many others. This key point is useful in that it does not focus solely on maximization of wealth as a way out of poverty. The problem with poverty is not lack of money, but that lack of money means that people are not free to make their own way in life. They may be trapped being at the mercy of nature, an opressive government, or an economy cripled by bad policy. The conclusion therefore, is that money alone cannot fix the real problem. Government reform, economic liberalization, and the general increase of personal freedoms is the true end we are striving for. Increasing incomes is one of several necessary steps to be accomplished and not an end in and of itself. Read the rest of this entry »

Excuse me, are you going to use all that Sun in one place?

Given present-day concerns about energy independence, pollution control, and energy price stability, solar energy is often touted as one of the (at least partial) solutions to that problem. Solar energy involves making electricity or other useable energy out of light from the Sun. And while humans have been using solar energy on some level since before history, most applications including solar cells ( photovoltaics ) and other efficient conversion systems have only been in use since the late 1940s. As of 2005, the total share of domestically produced electricity from solar energy was very small at 0.065%, or a total of about 19 billion kilowatt-hours , but growing rapidly. Read the rest of this entry »

One small step forward…

While I was serving as a teacher in the small town of Kankalabé (population: ~5000), Guinea in West Africa, the European Union financed a project to install a running water system in that town. The project, of limited benefit, was soon sabotaged and has since been nothing but a monument to unrealized progress. The rationale of the planners and managers, I cannot verify, but I will describe observations from the level of the townspeople during my time there. Read the rest of this entry »

Is this for them or for us?

A couple years ago, I was advising a group of undergraduate engineering students from Rice University on a project they were pursuing for Engineers Without Borders . They were designing a rainwater catchment and drip irrigation system for a village in Mali, West Africa. Having heard about their project and having experience in that part of the world, I offered to help and provide what guidance I could. Read the rest of this entry »

The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics by William Easterly is an honest answer to part of the question, “why hasn't the world improved like we thought it would?” Easterly conducts a post-mortem conference on western aid programs since the end of World War II, finding that in many cases we should have known better. The incentives created by some nations' economic environment, or the aid programs themselves led national economies into periods of stagnant or negative growth. Easterly's mantra is “people respond to incentives.” Ignoring this truth, a central tenet of economics, has led to several irrational choices in the area of development aid, and many failures to achieve our objectives. Read the rest of this entry »

Please, That's Not Appropriate Here…

Appropriate Technology , a somewhat condescending (from the receivers point of view) title for a movement that arose in the 1970s, focuses on providing an improved intermediate step on the technology staircase between developing and industrialized countries. While some of these ideas have been expressed for many decades (see The Ugly American by William Lederer and Eugene Burdick), the success of the movement has not been universal. Skeptics claim that while the ideas have merit in reducing the destruction of natural resources and improving living conditions with minimal outside investment, the entire idea typically fails to take into account the economic aspects of technology transfer and development. Read the rest of this entry »

Onwards and Upwards

Do we know what we are doing? Maybe the right question is do we ever know what we are doing? What are the true consequences of our actions today and tomorrow and hundreds of years from now? Are we responsible for those consequences or should we never be concerned with them?

I believe that too often we accept not having the answers that we could have. We have chosen not to know whether our ways of “helping” each other really turn out to be help in the end. We have chosen to push the solutions to problems we have today off into the realm of tomorrow. While some of that may be rational (I am fairly certain that my computer will be faster in 5 years), not all of it is. Read the rest of this entry »

True-Progress.com is looking for writers to contribute to the mission of finding enduring solutions . If you or someone you know would like the opportunity to regularly publish articles on this site, please see the details here . Read the rest of this entry »